Friday, 21 April 2017
Suspend Your Disbelief
Farewell to Nigel Farage. Farewell, therefore, to UKIP. A one-man band that has lost its one man has become no band at all.
Theresa May does not approve of Opposition, and she has well and truly seen it off on the Right, both within and beyond her own party. It is inconceivable that there will be any UKIP MPs after 8th June.
Even in the event of a Conservative overall majority, however, then there would still be about as many Labour MPs as there were now.
The return of the Conservatives to second place in diehard Labour seats, often including a numerically close second place, was in fact a mere reversion to the historical norm.
It did not, and it does not, make those seats winnable from the Conservatives' point of view.
Moreover, the Liberal Democrats are on course to take dozens of Conservative seats in the Remain heartlands of the South.
Those Conservative losses will be too numerous to be offset by the Conservative gains from the SNP, of which there will certainly be some, since the SNP heartlands are places that the Conservatives have to explain how they ever stopped winning.
They did not used to be Labour. The seats like that went Nationalist only as recently as two years ago.
And in the midst of all of this, certain online bookmakers have already suspended betting on a Labour overall majority, and on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.